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** Appendix **
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*Full results, Country-Year, Table A4
*************************************
*t-1
xtreg F.v2x_polyarchy iprogress4 iprogress3 iprogress2 iprogress1 ongoing_campaign  camp_size3 sec_defect3 diversity_all totalviolentconflicts_loc neighbordemocracy lngdppc lntpop urbaniz v2x_polyarchy i.year if campaign_status != 7  & year < 2014, fe cluster(ccode) r
estimates store t_1
*t-2
xtreg F2.v2x_polyarchy iprogress4 iprogress3 iprogress2 iprogress1 ongoing_campaign  camp_size3 sec_defect3 diversity_all F.totalviolentconflicts_loc F.neighbordemocracy F.lngdppc F.lntpop F.urbaniz F.v2x_polyarchy i.year if campaign_status != 7  & year < 2014, fe cluster(ccode) r
estimates store t_2
*t-5
xtreg F5.v2x_polyarchy iprogress4 iprogress3 iprogress2 iprogress1 ongoing_campaign camp_size3 sec_defect3 diversity_all F4.totalviolentconflicts_loc F4.neighbordemocracy F4.lngdppc F4.lntpop F4.urbaniz F4.v2x_polyarchy i.year if campaign_status != 7  & year < 2014, fe cluster(ccode) r
estimates store t_5
*t-10
xtreg F10.v2x_polyarchy iprogress4 iprogress3 iprogress2 iprogress1 ongoing_campaign camp_size3 sec_defect3 diversity_all F9.totalviolentconflicts_loc F9.neighbordemocracy F9.lngdppc F9.lntpop F9.urbaniz F9.v2x_polyarchy i.year if campaign_status != 7  & year < 2014, fe cluster(ccode) r
estimates store t_10

estout t_1 t_2 t_5 t_10, cells(b(star fmt(%9.3f)) p(par)) stats(r2 N) 

*Full Results, Post-Campaign Year, Table A5
*******************************************
*t-1
reg v2x_polyarchy outcomespelltype_p camp_size_spell camp_sec_defect_spell camp_diversity_spell totalviolentconflicts_loc neighbordemocracy lngdppc lntpop urbaniz polyarchy_at_start L.v2x_polyarchy if postcampyears == 1 & year < 2014 & outcomespelltype != 6, r cluster(ccode)
estimates store t_1

*t-2
reg v2x_polyarchy outcomespelltype_p camp_size_spell camp_sec_defect_spell camp_diversity_spell totalviolentconflicts_loc neighbordemocracy lngdppc lntpop urbaniz polyarchy_at_start L.v2x_polyarchy if postcampyears == 2 & year < 2014 & outcomespelltype != 6, r cluster(ccode)
estimates store t_2

*t-5
reg v2x_polyarchy outcomespelltype_p camp_size_spell camp_sec_defect_spell camp_diversity_spell totalviolentconflicts_loc neighbordemocracy lngdppc lntpop urbaniz polyarchy_at_start L.v2x_polyarchy if postcampyears == 5 & year < 2014 & outcomespelltype != 6, r cluster(ccode)
estimates store t_5

*t-10
reg v2x_polyarchy outcomespelltype_p camp_size_spell camp_sec_defect_spell camp_diversity_spell totalviolentconflicts_loc neighbordemocracy lngdppc lntpop urbaniz polyarchy_at_start L.v2x_polyarchy if postcampyears == 10 & year < 2014 & outcomespelltype != 6, r cluster(ccode)
estimates store t_10

estout t_1 t_2 t_5 t_10, cells(b(star fmt(%9.3f)) p(par)) stats(r2 N) 

*Alternative IVs, Country-Year, Table A6
****************************************
*t-1
xtreg F.v2x_polyarchy positive_demobilization negative_demobilization ongoing_campaign2 camp_size3 sec_defect3 diversity_all totalviolentconflicts_loc neighbordemocracy lngdppc lntpop urbaniz v2x_polyarchy i.year if campaign_status != 7  & year < 2014, fe cluster(ccode) r
estimates store t_1
*t-2
xtreg F2.v2x_polyarchy  positive_demobilization negative_demobilization ongoing_campaign2  camp_size3 sec_defect3 diversity_all F.totalviolentconflicts_loc F.neighbordemocracy F.lngdppc F.lntpop F.urbaniz F.v2x_polyarchy i.year if campaign_status != 7  & year < 2014, fe cluster(ccode) r
estimates store t_2
*t-5
xtreg F5.v2x_polyarchy positive_demobilization negative_demobilization ongoing_campaign2 camp_size3 sec_defect3 diversity_all F4.totalviolentconflicts_loc F4.neighbordemocracy F4.lngdppc F4.lntpop F4.urbaniz F4.v2x_polyarchy i.year if campaign_status != 7  & year < 2014, fe cluster(ccode) r
estimates store t_5
*t-10
xtreg F10.v2x_polyarchy positive_demobilization negative_demobilization ongoing_campaign2 camp_size3 sec_defect3 diversity_all F9.totalviolentconflicts_loc F9.neighbordemocracy F9.lngdppc F9.lntpop F9.urbaniz F9.v2x_polyarchy i.year if campaign_status != 7  & year < 2014, fe cluster(ccode) r
estimates store t_10

estout t_1 t_2 t_5 t_10, cells(b(star fmt(%9.3f)) p(par)) stats(r2 N) 

*Alternative IVs, Table A7
**************************
*t-1
reg v2x_polyarchy ongoing_campaign2 camp_size_spell camp_sec_defect_spell camp_diversity_spell totalviolentconflicts_loc neighbordemocracy lngdppc lntpop urbaniz polyarchy_at_start L.v2x_polyarchy if postcampyears == 1 & year < 2014 & outcomespelltype != 6, r cluster(ccode)
estimates store t_1

*t-2
reg v2x_polyarchy max_progress4 max_progress3 max_progress2 max_progress1 camp_size_spell camp_sec_defect_spell camp_diversity_spell totalviolentconflicts_loc neighbordemocracy lngdppc lntpop urbaniz polyarchy_at_start L.v2x_polyarchy if postcampyears == 2 & year < 2014 & outcomespelltype != 6, r cluster(ccode)
estimates store t_2

*t-5
reg v2x_polyarchy max_progress4 max_progress3 max_progress2 max_progress1 camp_size_spell camp_sec_defect_spell camp_diversity_spell totalviolentconflicts_loc neighbordemocracy lngdppc lntpop urbaniz polyarchy_at_start L.v2x_polyarchy if postcampyears == 5 & year < 2014 & outcomespelltype != 6, r cluster(ccode)
estimates store t_5

*t-10
reg v2x_polyarchy max_progress4 max_progress3 max_progress2 max_progress1 camp_size_spell camp_sec_defect_spell camp_diversity_spell totalviolentconflicts_loc neighbordemocracy lngdppc lntpop urbaniz polyarchy_at_start L.v2x_polyarchy if postcampyears == 10 & year < 2014 & outcomespelltype != 6, r cluster(ccode)
estimates store t_10

estout t_1 t_2 t_5 t_10, cells(b(star fmt(%9.3f)) p(par)) stats(r2 N) 

*Main IVs Only, Country-Year, Table A8
***************************************
*t-1
xtreg F.v2x_polyarchy iprogress4 iprogress3 iprogress2 iprogress1 ongoing_campaign v2x_polyarchy i.year if campaign_status != 7  & year < 2014, fe cluster(ccode) r
estimates store t_1
*t-2
xtreg F2.v2x_polyarchy iprogress4 iprogress3 iprogress2 iprogress1 ongoing_campaign F.v2x_polyarchy i.year if campaign_status != 7  & year < 2014, fe cluster(ccode) r
estimates store t_2
*t-5
xtreg F5.v2x_polyarchy iprogress4 iprogress3 iprogress2 iprogress1 ongoing_campaign F4.v2x_polyarchy i.year if campaign_status != 7  & year < 2014, fe cluster(ccode) r
estimates store t_5
*t-10
xtreg F10.v2x_polyarchy iprogress4 iprogress3 iprogress2 iprogress1 ongoing_campaign F9.v2x_polyarchy i.year if campaign_status != 7  & year < 2014, fe cluster(ccode) r
estimates store t_10

estout t_1 t_2 t_5 t_10, cells(b(star fmt(%9.3f)) p(par)) stats(r2 N) 

*Main IVs Only, Post-Campaign Year, Table A9
********************************************
*t-1
reg v2x_polyarchy outcomespelltype_p polyarchy_at_start L.v2x_polyarchy if postcampyears == 1 & year < 2014 & outcomespelltype != 6, r cluster(ccode)
estimates store t_1

*t-2
reg v2x_polyarchy outcomespelltype_p  polyarchy_at_start L.v2x_polyarchy if postcampyears == 2 & year < 2014 & outcomespelltype != 6, r cluster(ccode)
estimates store t_2

*t-5
reg v2x_polyarchy outcomespelltype_p  polyarchy_at_start L.v2x_polyarchy if postcampyears == 5 & year < 2014 & outcomespelltype != 6, r cluster(ccode)
estimates store t_5

*t-10
reg v2x_polyarchy outcomespelltype_p polyarchy_at_start L.v2x_polyarchy if postcampyears == 10 & year < 2014 & outcomespelltype != 6, r cluster(ccode)
estimates store t_10

estout t_1 t_2 t_5 t_10, cells(b(star fmt(%9.3f)) p(par)) stats(r2 N)

*Campaign and State Violence, Country-Year, A10
***********************************************
*t-1
xtreg F.v2x_polyarchy iprogress4 iprogress3 iprogress2 iprogress1 ongoing_campaign rad_flank2 repression3 totalviolentconflicts_loc neighbordemocracy lngdppc lntpop urbaniz v2x_polyarchy i.year if campaign_status != 7  & year < 2014, fe cluster(ccode) r
estimates store t_1
*t-2
xtreg F2.v2x_polyarchy iprogress4 iprogress3 iprogress2 iprogress1 ongoing_campaign rad_flank2 repression3 F.totalviolentconflicts_loc F.neighbordemocracy F.lngdppc F.lntpop F.urbaniz F.v2x_polyarchy i.year if campaign_status != 7  & year < 2014, fe cluster(ccode) r
estimates store t_2
*t-5
xtreg F5.v2x_polyarchy iprogress4 iprogress3 iprogress2 iprogress1 ongoing_campaign rad_flank2 repression3 F4.totalviolentconflicts_loc F4.neighbordemocracy F4.lngdppc F4.lntpop F4.urbaniz F4.v2x_polyarchy i.year if campaign_status != 7  & year < 2014, fe cluster(ccode) r
estimates store t_5
*t-10
xtreg F10.v2x_polyarchy iprogress4 iprogress3 iprogress2 iprogress1 ongoing_campaign rad_flank2 repression3 F9.totalviolentconflicts_loc F9.neighbordemocracy F9.lngdppc F9.lntpop F9.urbaniz F9.v2x_polyarchy i.year if campaign_status != 7  & year < 2014, fe cluster(ccode) r
estimates store t_10

estout t_1 t_2 t_5 t_10, cells(b(star fmt(%9.3f)) p(par)) stats(r2 N)

*Campaign and State Violence, Post-Campaign Year, A11
*****************************************************
*t-1
reg v2x_polyarchy outcomespelltype_p rad_flank_spell repression_spellmax totalviolentconflicts_loc neighbordemocracy lngdppc lntpop urbaniz polyarchy_at_start L.v2x_polyarchy if postcampyears == 1 & year < 2014 & outcomespelltype != 6, r cluster(ccode)
estimates store t_1

*t-2
reg v2x_polyarchy outcomespelltype_p rad_flank_spell repression_spellmax totalviolentconflicts_loc neighbordemocracy lngdppc lntpop urbaniz polyarchy_at_start L.v2x_polyarchy if postcampyears == 2 & year < 2014 & outcomespelltype != 6, r cluster(ccode)
estimates store t_2

*t-5
reg v2x_polyarchy outcomespelltype_p rad_flank_spell repression_spellmax totalviolentconflicts_loc neighbordemocracy lngdppc lntpop urbaniz polyarchy_at_start L.v2x_polyarchy if postcampyears == 5 & year < 2014 & outcomespelltype != 6, r cluster(ccode)
estimates store t_5

*t-10
reg v2x_polyarchy outcomespelltype_p rad_flank_spell repression_spellmax totalviolentconflicts_loc neighbordemocracy lngdppc lntpop urbaniz polyarchy_at_start L.v2x_polyarchy if postcampyears == 10 & year < 2014 & outcomespelltype != 6, r cluster(ccode)
estimates store t_10

estout t_1 t_2 t_5 t_10, cells(b(star fmt(%9.3f)) p(par)) stats(r2 N) 

*Model Scope: Autocracies only, Country-Year, A12
*************************************************
*t-1
xtreg F.v2x_polyarchy iprogress4 iprogress3 iprogress2 iprogress1 ongoing_campaign  camp_size3 sec_defect3 diversity_all totalviolentconflicts_loc neighbordemocracy lngdppc lntpop urbaniz v2x_polyarchy i.year if campaign_status != 7  & year < 2014 & v2x_polyarchy <0.6, fe cluster(ccode) r
estimates store t_1
*t-2
xtreg F2.v2x_polyarchy iprogress4 iprogress3 iprogress2 iprogress1 ongoing_campaign  camp_size3 sec_defect3 diversity_all F.totalviolentconflicts_loc F.neighbordemocracy F.lngdppc F.lntpop F.urbaniz F.v2x_polyarchy i.year if campaign_status != 7  & year < 2014 & v2x_polyarchy <0.6, fe cluster(ccode) r
estimates store t_2
*t-5
xtreg F5.v2x_polyarchy iprogress4 iprogress3 iprogress2 iprogress1 ongoing_campaign camp_size3 sec_defect3 diversity_all F4.totalviolentconflicts_loc F4.neighbordemocracy F4.lngdppc F4.lntpop F4.urbaniz F4.v2x_polyarchy i.year if campaign_status != 7  & year < 2014 & v2x_polyarchy <0.6, fe cluster(ccode) r
estimates store t_5
*t-10
xtreg F10.v2x_polyarchy iprogress4 iprogress3 iprogress2 iprogress1 ongoing_campaign camp_size3 sec_defect3 diversity_all F9.totalviolentconflicts_loc F9.neighbordemocracy F9.lngdppc F9.lntpop F9.urbaniz F9.v2x_polyarchy i.year if campaign_status != 7  & year < 2014 & v2x_polyarchy <0.6, fe cluster(ccode) r
estimates store t_10

estout t_1 t_2 t_5 t_10, cells(b(star fmt(%9.3f)) p(par)) stats(r2 N) 

*Model Scope: Autocracies only, Post-Campaign Year,A13
******************************************************
*t-1
reg v2x_polyarchy outcomespelltype_p camp_size_spell camp_sec_defect_spell camp_diversity_spell totalviolentconflicts_loc neighbordemocracy lngdppc lntpop urbaniz polyarchy_at_start L.v2x_polyarchy if postcampyears == 1 & year < 2014 & outcomespelltype != 6 & v2x_polyarchy <0.6, r cluster(ccode)
estimates store t_1

*t-2
reg v2x_polyarchy outcomespelltype_p camp_size_spell camp_sec_defect_spell camp_diversity_spell totalviolentconflicts_loc neighbordemocracy lngdppc lntpop urbaniz polyarchy_at_start L.v2x_polyarchy if postcampyears == 2 & year < 2014 & outcomespelltype != 6 & v2x_polyarchy <0.6, r cluster(ccode)
estimates store t_2

*t-5
reg v2x_polyarchy outcomespelltype_p camp_size_spell camp_sec_defect_spell camp_diversity_spell totalviolentconflicts_loc neighbordemocracy lngdppc lntpop urbaniz polyarchy_at_start L.v2x_polyarchy if postcampyears == 5 & year < 2014 & outcomespelltype != 6 & v2x_polyarchy <0.6, r cluster(ccode)
estimates store t_5

*t-10
reg v2x_polyarchy outcomespelltype_p camp_size_spell camp_sec_defect_spell camp_diversity_spell totalviolentconflicts_loc neighbordemocracy lngdppc lntpop urbaniz polyarchy_at_start L.v2x_polyarchy if postcampyears == 10 & year < 2014 & outcomespelltype != 6 & v2x_polyarchy <0.6, r cluster(ccode)
estimates store t_10

estout t_1 t_2 t_5 t_10, cells(b(star fmt(%9.3f)) p(par)) stats(r2 N) 